Basics of container demand forecast

Abstract

Abstract This chapter describes a four-step demand forecast approach a heuristic method to compute the traffic demand in a stepwise manner. It consist of ‘traffic generation/attraction’ from origins and destinations, ‘traffic distribution’ (OD matrix) between origin and destination, ‘modal choice’ for each OD pair and ‘traffic assignment’ for each transport mode, which are explained one by one in this chapter. One of the outputs of the four-step model framework is a traffic volume or flow passing through links in the transport network during a given period. In the case of a container cargo demand model, an output is typically the annual cargo volume (on a TEU or tonnage basis) transported from one port to another. Meanwhile, inputs into the model framework are typically socio-economic information such as gross domestic product (GDP) and population. The network assignment model, which will be introduced in the parts of this book afterward, is classified as an integrated model of the third step (transport mode choice) and fourth step (route choice), if the cargo shipping demand from origin to destination estimated in the second step is given.