Agricultural and Forest Meteorology | 2019
Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations
Abstract
Highlights • Crop model ensemble size and composition affect the ensemble outputs.• Recommendations on adaptation are sensitive to model ensemble composition and size.• The new EOA index effectively measures the confidence level of recommendations.• Effective adaptation of wheat in the Mediterranean is feasible with high confidence.• The EOA index can be applied to assess confidence in many other contexts.