Drivers of energy-related PM2.5 emissions in the Jing-Jin-Ji region between 2002 and 2015

Abstract

Abstract Sharp increases in energy consumption have led to increases in fine particulate matter emissions in the Jing-Jin-Ji region. In this study, PM2.5 emissions of various sectors were assessed from the production-, consumption-, and income-based perspectives by multiple principles accounting analysis. The key drivers of PM2.5 emission changes were identified by structural decomposition analysis, then the flow patterns were determined by input–output analysis. Consumption-based and income-based accounting methods were used to investigate PM2.5 emissions for 21 sectors using the production-based emission inventory in the Greenhouse Gas Air Pollution Interaction and Synergies model for the Jing-Jin-Ji region and an environmentally extended input–output framework. Structural decomposition analysis was then used to identify the socioeconomic drivers of changes in PM2.5 emissions in the Jing-Jin-Ji region between 2002 and 2015 from consumption- and income-based perspectives. Inter-provincial flow patterns for consumption-driven and supply-driven PM2.5 emissions were then identified by performing input–output analysis. The results indicated that transport and storage, electricity, hot water, gas, and water production and supply and services are the key sectors emitting PM2.5 from the production-, consumption-, and income-based perspectives, respectively. The emission intensity is a crucial socioeconomic driver affecting changes in PM2.5 emissions. The inter-provincial PM2.5 flow results indicated that Beijing is a consumption- and supply-driven net importer of PM2.5 emissions and Hebei is a net exporter. The results will help in the development of measures to mitigate demand-side and supply-side PM2.5 emissions and of coordinated multi-regional policies for the Jing-Jin-Ji region.