Climate modulation of Niño3.4 SST-anomalies on air quality change in southern China: Application to seasonal forecast of haze pollution

Abstract

Abstract Air stagnation modulates the frequency and duration of haze events. Based on meteorological and environmental observation data during 1980 to 2013, the present study analyzed the relationship between the interannual variations of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over tropical central-eastern Pacific and the number of winter haze days (WHD) over the Southern China (SC) region. The potential preceding signal of Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in Nino3.4 region associated with ENSO can be used as a predictor of haze occurrences in winter. Results indicate that the detrended WHD in the SC is significantly correlated (r\u202f=\u202f−0.55) with the contemporary SSTAs in Nino3.4 region. The winters with warm Nino3.4 SSTAs in (El Nino) tend to be accompanied with less haze events in the SC, resulting from more local precipitation and enhanced mid-level winds, which helps to build an unstable condition that is conductive for the decrease of haze occurrence. The precursory signal of WHD variability can be detected in the tropical central-eastern Pacific SST, which is amplified since August to winter season. Based on the August–October mean SSTAs in Nino3.4 and three other identified predictors, we developed a seasonal prediction model of the WHD using RF regression method. The model accounted for 90% of the total variance of the WHD in the SC and ranked the SSTAs in Nino3.4 as the most important predictor. This implies that the SSTAs tropical Pacific play a significant role in the variability of WHD in the SC. Since the predictors can be readily monitored in real time, the model provides a real time forecast tool and could brighten the prospects for seasonal forecast of haze anomalies in vulnerable regions such as the SC.