Spatial–temporal variation of land use and land cover change in the glacial affected area of the Tianshan Mountains

Abstract

Abstract During the past decades, land use/land cover change (LUCC) has occurred in the glacial affected areas at unpredictable rates driven by natural and human factors. Monitoring and identifying the spatial and temporal land cover changes and driving forces in this unique type of region provides a scientific basis for understanding the changing process of the Earth s surface, helping to reveal the impact of climate change and human activities on LUCC. In this study, the Tianshan Mountains (TSMs), which are located in the hinterland of Eurasia, were selected to investigate the LUCC of its typical glacial affected areas that have significant regional particularities. LUCC processes in the TSMs in China over the past 35\xa0years were analyzed using a dynamic change model, a landscape pattern index, a centroid transfer model, and geoinformation Tupu based on the land use data of 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015. The results show that the areas of cultivated and built-up lands immensely increased by 45.87% and 187.10%, respectively. Correspondingly, the areas of bare land and ice and snow cover decreased by 26.76% and 37.93%, respectively. The land use change in the TSMs was characterized by different stages, and high conversion rates and intensities were obtained from 2000 to 2015. The landscape change was mainly reflected in the significant increase in the number of patches and the simplification and regularization of patch shapes. The spatial connectivity of different land use types also increased. The temperature and precipitation in the region showed increasing trends, and the melting rate of ice and snow cover significantly accelerated. This study can help achieve a dynamic LUCC model to investigate the interacting influences of climate change and human activities in glacial affected areas.