Probabilistic comparison between turbulence closure model and Bulk Richardson Number approach for ABL height estimation using copula

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, a numerical study has been carried out to assess changes in Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) height under changing hydro-climatic conditions. ABL height is estimated by using the data from experiments conducted at three different sites- LAnd Surface Process EXperiment (LASPEX-97) in Sabarmati river basin, Gujarat, India, during 1997; Boundary Layer Late Afternoon and Sunset Turbulence (BLLAST) in Lannemezan, France, during 2011 and Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) in Tucson at Arizona, USA, during 2011. Here ABL height is estimated, during Intensive Observation Period (IOP), using 1-D turbulence closure model at all three site locations as well as following the Bulk Richardson Number (BRN) Approach. For LASPEX-97 only, the 1-D model with module for sub-surface processes coupled with upper-surface model is used for the estimation and compared with the only upper-surface model. ABL height, estimated by the coupled model, is found to be slightly higher than that by the un-coupled model. A copula-based analysis indicates that ABL height estimated by the 1-D model and same by BRN-based approach are statistically similar within 90% confidence interval (CI) under similar stratification condition. Thus, it validates the 1-D turbulence closure model for ABL height estimation. The sensitivity analysis of height of ABL, derived by 1-D model, against critical parameters reveals that surface condition (soil temperature) is more critical than atmospheric condition (net radiation) in forcing change on height of ABL in summer.