Comprehensive evaluation system for optimal configuration of multi-energy systems

Abstract

Abstract As a feasible method of energy transformation, a multi-energy system (MES) realizes coordinated development and optimized operation of different energy systems, and effectively improves the utilization rate of renewable energy in the energy system. However, the optimal configuration between different energy systems has become a critical obstacle hindering the development of MES. Based on an actual engineering project, this study established a comprehensive evaluation index system for a MES, including a tri-generation + ground source heat pump (GSHP) + energy storage system (ESS) + gas boiler system (GBS). Then, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Monte Carlo simulation were used to analyze the weights and sensitivities of various indices, and the different results obtained by the two methods were compared. Under different optimization objectives, the optimized configuration of MES is further obtained, and the following conclusions are drawn. (1) A comprehensive energy evaluation system considering the system’s cost, economic operation, and environmental impact was established in this study. (2) The AHP and Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to analyze the weight and calculate the sensitivity of the proposed evaluation indices. (3) The results of the index weights obtained using the two different methods were compared and the error was within 15%. (4) A sufficient amount of data samples and the relevant sensitivity weight results can be obtained relatively objectively and fairly using the Monte Carlo simulation method as presented herein. The proposed comprehensive evaluation system can provide important guidance to future research in this field.