Increasing inconsistency between climate suitability and production of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in China

Abstract

Abstract Understanding the varying distribution of climate-suitable areas of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) can greatly aid in optimizing distribution of cotton production and sustainable production. Based on occurrence records, national meteorological data and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model (a species distribution model), we investigated for the first time the interdecadal variations in climate-suitable areas of cotton with changing climate in China from 1961 to 2017. Then, the gravity center and concentration index were employed to investigate the spatial-temporal variations of cotton production. The results revealed the dominant meteorological predictors affecting climate suitability of cotton to be ≥ 28℃ accumulated maximum temperature from April to October, average temperature in the warmest month, continuous days with daily average temperature ≥15 ℃ and annual precipitation days. The climate optimum areas were generally distributed in the eastern and northern parts of the Huanghe Valley and Northwest Inland cotton regions, respectively. The climatic suitability of cotton has increased in China in recent decades. In particular, the areas of improved climatic suitability of cotton encompassed 38.08 % of the whole country from the 1960s to 2010s. This increase was concentrated in the Huanghe Valley and Northwest Inland cotton regions. The distribution of climate-suitable areas moved northward and expanded westward. Meanwhile, the gravity center of the cotton production moved to the northwest at a distance of approximately 1283 km from 1985 to 2015. Although both the production and distribution of climate-suitable areas of cotton shifted towards the northwest, the proportions of inconsistency between planting areas and climate-suitable areas increased from 22.76 % in the 1980s to 32.38 % in the 2010s. The increasing planting acreage in areas of low climate suitability may pose a risk to cotton production, especially in emerging major planting areas of the Northwest Inland cotton region. The results of the present study can provide a theoretical reference for the optimization of planting distribution and ensure the sustainable production of the cotton industry.