Global warming drives range shifts in spiny-tailed lizards (Squamata: Agamidae: Uromastyx) in the African and Arabian deserts

Abstract

Abstract Many species are expected to be at risk from climate change, whereas others may not be threatened because the projected change will occur within their physiological tolerance limits. Particularly, lizards of the genus Uromastyx, known for their narrow climatic and habitat requirements and limited dispersal abilities, might face local or global extinction due to current climate change. To address this problematic situation, we examined the potential effect of climate change on the distribution of 15 Uromastyx species (Merrem, 1820) using Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios for the year 2070. Here, we also tested the role of protected areas (PAs) in the conservation of Uromastyx species. According to our models, climate change could essentially threaten up to 75% of the studied species, while 25% of species may resist or even benefit from global warming. Furthermore, taxa with relatively broader distributions are more protected than taxa with smaller distributions suggesting that conservation efforts should be focused on a local scale. Future vulnerability assessment of individual species to climate change should consider integrating the physiological and behavioral plasticity of the taxa studied to allow mechanistic models to evaluate climate change effects on these species.