Revisiting the asymmetric effects of bank credit on the business cycle: A panel quantile regression approach

Abstract

Regarding the co-movement between financial factors and the business cycle, we use the data of 18 countries from 1999 to 2016 and examine the asymmetric effects of bank credit on the business cycle by using the panel quantile regression. The empirical results suggest that bank credit is pro-cyclical and amplifies the business cycle and this effect is larger in the economic booms. In addition, the asymmetric effects of bank credit on the business cycle are robust in the different prediction horizons and for alternative financial factors, including M2 supply and stock price. This paper contributes to explore the distinct roles of bank credit on the economy in the different business cycle phases.