Longitudinal relationship between long-distance commuting willingness and behavior: Evidence from European data

Abstract

Abstract Findings from cross-sectional studies point to a positive correlation between commuting willingness and commuting behavior. Individuals who currently commute long distances to work express a greater willingness to do so in the future. In terms of policy and planning, planners and policymakers often regard the willingness to commute long distances as an important indicator of a population s potential future commuting behavior. However, given the emphasis on cross-sectional studies in the existing literature, it is unclear whether a high willingness to commute actually has an influence on the decision to engage in commuting (selection hypothesis), or whether participating in long-distance commuting determines willingness to commute (adaptation hypothesis). We use unique longitudinal data from four European countries – Germany, France, Spain, and Switzerland – to examine the relationship between individual level willingness to commute long distances (i.e. at least 60\xa0min one-way) and actual commuting behavior. Results show that there is considerable within-person variance in commuting willingness over time. We find novel evidence that is in line with the adaptation hypothesis, meaning that starting a long-distance commuting episode is associated with an increase in commuting willingness. There is also some evidence for a selection effect, yet this effect appears to be considerably weaker. Therefore, this study provides more support for adaptation theories of commuting suggesting that commuting willingness can be understood as an outcome capturing people s attitudes toward their current commuting arrangements. Future commuting research should incorporate such possibilities into their conceptualizations of the commuting willingness construct and explanatory models for commuting behavior and outcomes. We also address implications for policy and practice.