Spatio-temporal hazard assessment of a monogenetic volcanic field, near México City

Abstract

Abstract An eruption in the Younger Chichinautzin Monogenetic Field (YCMF) represents a major volcanic hazard to Mexico City, one of the most important cultural and financial centres in Latin America where >20 million people live. The birth of a new volcano in this field could severely impact the economic and social activity of the country. To identify where and when the next eruption in the YCMF could occur, the temporal and spatial distribution of past events were analyzed, assuming that future activity will follow a similar tendency. We reconstructed ages for the non-dated monogenetic volcanoes based on cone morphometric analyses correlated with published radiometric dates (R2\u202f=\u202f0.901). A Grid Probability Analysis (GPA) was applied for the first time in a monogenetic volcanic field to calculate the spatio-temporal probability of a new volcano forming. The field was divided into 96 cells of 5\u202f×\u202f5\u202fkm, which is the maximum observed distance between volcanoes. The recurrence rate and probability of a new volcano forming was then calculated for each cell using the estimated ages and a spatio-temporal probability map was constructed for the field. There are at least three areas with higher probability, concentrated in the central and northwestern parts of the study area. These areas are close to the volcanoes with the most recent eruptions and an eruption in these zones could seriously impact Mexico City and nearby areas as did Xitle and Chichinautzin volcanoes ~2000\u202fyears ago.