The relative aggregate footprint of electricity generation technologies in the European Union (EU): A system of systems approach

Abstract

Abstract Decarbonizing electricity risks unintended consequences for other environmental resources. The European Union’s (EU) Member States (MSs) embarked on a decarbonization and renewables deployment program aware of this risk. However, uncertainty remains around which technologies are best suited to the nexus of resources affected. In this study, we illustrate the benefits of using the Relative Aggregate Footprint (RAF) concept to evaluate energy technology alternatives. The RAF is an indicator based on a System of Systems approach that assesses technologies along multiple performance criteria, takes account of performance uncertainty, adjusts criteria importance according to local resource availabilities, and makes the evaluation robust to differing notions of optimality to determine the desirability of technologies. We evaluated 11 electricity generation technologies by cost, carbon, water and land footprint. Assuming equal weightings of the four criteria, we found nuclear, geothermal, and onshore wind to generally have the lowest RAF. We then calculated the MS-specific RAF’s by weighing each criterion based on the local availability of the respective resource: 1) gross domestic product per capita, 2) carbon emissions per capita, 3) freshwater withdrawals as a share of renewable freshwater, and 4) land availability per capita. By analyzing variances between MSs’ RAFs we highlighted how differences in resource availability generate trade-offs for EU electricity decarbonization policies.