Unraveling the potential of sugarcane electricity for climate change mitigation in Brazil

Abstract

Abstract Bioenergy is expected to play an essential role in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the future energy sector. In Brazil, sugarcane electricity appears as a reliable option with low GHG emissions when compared to fossil alternatives. The sugarcane sector mostly produces electricity from bagasse, while straw (sugarcane tops and leaves) presents a vast potential for additional electricity production and mitigation of climate change. The suitability and potential of straw recovery are site-specific, depends on climatic conditions, and may influence soil quality and sugarcane yields. This study estimates the potential electricity production in Brazil from sugarcane bagasse and straw and their potential to avoid GHG emissions in the energy sector. A map of suitability classes for straw recovery was developed to help to assess the amount of straw that could be strategically recovered from the fields for bioenergy production. Results show that up to 13% of the GHG emissions of the electricity sector in Brazil could be mitigated by improving the cogeneration system in existing sugarcane mills and recovering, based on the suitability maps, 62% of produced straw. Considering an expansion of 3 million hectares of sugarcane projected by the RenovaBio policy, sugarcane electricity exports could reach up to 159 TWh per year, which would avoid 72 million tCO2eq per year, equivalent to 8% of the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contributions mitigation target for 2030. A more assertive management of sugarcane residues has an enormous potential to increase sugarcane electricity production in Brazil while helping the country meet its climate mitigation targets.