Analysis of the optimal spatial distribution of natural gas under ‘transition from coal to gas’ in China

Abstract

Abstract China has been attempting to realise green sustainable economic development. Thus, China has proposed and begun to implement the ‘switching from coal to gas’ policy to realise the energy structure transition but neglected to consider seasonal natural gas demand fluctuations, gas supply shortages, the backward gas transportation and storage infrastructure. This paper constructs a model of China’s natural gas distribution system by incorporating these four factors: ① supply factors including domestic natural gas fields, liquid natural gas receiving stations, internationally piped gas sources, ② demand factors including domestic regional demands, ③ real natural gas transportation pipeline systems in the country, and ④ the pricing mechanism of natural gas. Optimal spatial natural gas distribution with maximum social welfare under the three conditions are simulated, respectively: the ① fixed price system, ② market pricing mechanism, and ③ seasonal fluctuations. The simulation results indicate substantial changes would occur in China’s natural gas system during the switch from coal to gas, and the natural gas infrastructure requires further improvement. This paper also provides references for the natural gas storage facility location selection in China.