Benchmarking the practice of validation and uncertainty analysis of building energy models

Abstract

Abstract The practice of validation and uncertainty analysis (UA) of building energy models (BEM) is critically reviewed. The background for this review is the recognized need for improvement of the accuracy in prediction of building energy performance, e.g. as part of an efficient mitigation response to climate change. The review was performed using benchmark comparison to verification and validation (V&V) frameworks obtained from the field of scientific computing. First, the current practice of V&V of BEM was reviewed, with a special focus on UA, and on the existing validation experiments (VE), used to provide the measurement data required for validation of BEM. Second, the review included a case study on the V&V of the European and International standard BEMs, CEN ISO 13790 and 52016–1, for calculation of the hourly energy use for space heating and cooling. From the perspective of the benchmark V&V frameworks, the conclusion was that these standard models cannot be considered as validated. Based on the present review, suggestions are given on how to strengthen the Building Information Modelling (BIM) initiative in its support for the development of accurate BEM. Finally, scientific challenges in terms of V&V of BEM are identified, where the most important is to increase the degree of consensus among scientists on the procedure for V&V as a condition for creating scientifically based standard BEMs.