Circular economy scenario modelling using a multiregional hybrid input-output model: The case of Belgium and its regions

Abstract

Abstract The Circular Economy (CE) has been suggested as an alternative to the traditional linear model of production, consumption, and disposal. It implies a minimisation of raw material consumption and emission, and that end-of-life materials are treated as resources rather than waste. However, the potential benefits and burdens of CE strategies at the national and subnational levels are not well understood. This paper assesses the potential environmental pressures of implementing a CE intervention (CEI) in Belgium, Brussels, Flanders, and Wallonia. The CEI include Delayed Replacement (DR), Reuse, Repair, Remanufacturing (3R), Use Intensification (UI), Design Improvement (DI) and Sharing. We apply the unique multiregional hybrid input-output tables at Belgian subnational level that we developed for 2011. Implementing exogenous technology and household consumption changes, we assess the environmental pressures of implementing CEI, by comparing the pressures occurring in the business-as-usual scenario to those occurring in a counterfactual CE scenario. The results show that the implementation of CEI in Belgium, Brussels, Flanders, and Wallonia could lead to a net decrease of pressures in each region and overseas, with the highest reduction in Europe. Except for DR, all interventions could lead to impact reduction, with 3R and UI showing the highest environmental performance. Our results constitute novelties providing substantial insights for CE policies implications. It is meaningful to embed well-attuned climate change, resource supply risks, and waste generation considerations into CE policies. Moreover, the interdependencies between countries/regions worldwide calls for concerted efforts to tackle environmental pressures geared towards a transition to a CE. Lastly, we also intend to foster raising attention and inspiration of practitioners and policymakers. The former with regard to developing more CE scenario analyses at different geographic scales. The latter with regard to integrate the CE considerations into foreign policies.