Risk assessment of critical infrastructures in a complex interdependent scenario: A four-stage hybrid decision support approach

Abstract

Abstract Critical infrastructures (CIs) play a vital role in providing public necessities and services; however, they are also accompanied by potential risk factors and consequent risk events. CI risk assessment is important for capturing the overall risk profile and risk sources. However, a complex interdependent scenario induced by inherent features of CIs makes risk assessment more challenging. The purpose of this study is to develop a decision support approach for CI risk assessment in a complex interdependent scenario. A characterization analysis of the complex interdependent scenario is first conducted from a system-of-systems perspective, where dual interdependency and scenario complexity are elaborated, respectively. Subsequently, a hybrid approach is proposed involving a four-stage resolution process, i.e., information processing, interdependency analysis, risk analysis, and risk profile determination, and integrating the 2-tuple fuzzy linguistic representation model, the extended Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), the extended Two-additive Choquet Integral (TACI), and the risk matrix. By using the approach, the overall risk profile is clarified and the risk sources are identified; moreover, a valuable supplement to risk treatment of CIs is provided. Finally, the potential of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a case study, comparisons of diverse scenarios and the related discussion are presented to demonstrate the necessity of considering a complex interdependent scenario.