Towards reducing the number of crashes during hurricane evacuation: Assessing the potential safety impact of adaptive cruise control systems

Abstract

Abstract Ensuring safer mobility for evacuee drivers during a hurricane evacuation has always been a major concern for traffic managers. That concern has grown further, particularly after recent hurricanes, which forced millions of people to evacuate, causing significant congestion and a high number of traffic crashes. Though several strategies have been deployed to manage the heavy traffic demand during a hurricane evacuation, current approaches seem to have less impact on traffic safety. In a situation where people are ordered to evacuate to a safer place involving long hours of driving, perception related errors are inevitable. In such conditions, advanced driving assistance system or vehicle automation can have a positive impact. In this study, we assess the safety impact of Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) systems during an evacuation. We develop a microscopic simulation model of evacuation traffic in SUMO and calibrate it using real-world traffic data collected during the evacuation period of hurricane Irma for a segment in the Interstate highway in Florida. To evaluate the safety impact of ACC systems, we adopt two surrogate measures: time to collision (TTC) and deceleration rate to avoid a collision (DRAC). Our simulation experiments show that, during the evacuation, about 49.7% of traffic collisions can be reduced at a 25% market penetration of ACC equipped vehicles. Our result has potential implications for hurricane evacuation management since a modest decrease in the number of crashes can help reduce the massive delays most commonly experienced during a major evacuation.