An analytic framework using deep learning for prediction of traffic accident injury severity based on contributing factors.

Abstract

Vulnerable road users (VRUs) are exposed to the highest risk in the road traffic environment. Analyzing contributing factors that affect injury severity facilitates injury severity prediction and further application in developing countermeasures to guarantee VRUs safety. Recently, machine learning approaches have been introduced, in which analyses tend to be one-sided and may ignore important information. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a comprehensive analytic framework that employs a deep learning model referred to as the stacked sparse autoencoder (SSAE) to predict the injury severity of traffic accidents based on contributing factors. The essential idea of the method is to integrate various analyses into an analytical framework that performs corresponding data processing and analysis by different machine learning approaches. In the proposed method, first, we utilize a machine learning approach (i.e., Catboost) to analyze the importance and dependence of the contributing factors to injury severity and remove low correlation factors; second, according to the geographical information, we classify the data into different classes by utilizing a machine learning approach (i.e., k-means clustering); third, by employing high correlation factors, we employ an SSAE-based deep learning model to perform injury severity prediction in each data class. By experiments with a real-world traffic accident dataset, we demonstrated the effectiveness and applicability of the framework. Specifically, (1) the importance and dependence of contributing factors were obtained by CatBoost and the Shapley value, and (2) the SSAE-based deep learning model achieved the best performance compared to other baseline models. The proposed analytic framework can also be utilized for other accident data for severity or other risk indicator analyses involving VRUs safety.