Tanzanian rainfall responses to El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events during 1951–2015

Abstract

Abstract The relative impacts of Indian and Pacific Ocean processes on Tanzanian rainfall was evaluated using composite and correlation analyses. It was found that the seasonal responses of rainfall to positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) and El Nino events are substantial from September–October–November (SON) to December–January–February (DJF), whereas the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exerts more control than El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in both seasons. The associated relationship with the sea surface temperature (SST) and large-scale atmospheric circulations revealed distinct features. For the pure pIOD years, there is above-normal rainfall over the entire country. A strong rainfall condition is evident over the Lake Victoria basin and coastal and northeastern highland parts of the country during SON, while areas of the central and southern highlands exhibit substantial rains during DJF. For the pure El-Nino events, Tanzania has suffered from insignificant, weak, and non-coherent rainfall conditions during SON. However, a contrasting insignificant rainfall signature is found between the northern and southern parts of the country during the subsequent DJF season. For the co-occurrence of pIOD and El Nino, significant, excessive rainfall conditions are restricted to over the northern coast and northeastern areas of the country during SON, consistent with the rainfall pattern for pIOD. A weak, positive rainfall condition is observed over the entire country in the following season of DJF. Generally, in terms of Tanzanian rainfall, the IOD/ENSO variability and the associated impacts can be explained by the anomalous SST and circulation anomalies.