On the effects of aviation on carbon-methane cycles and climate change during the period 2015-2100

Abstract

Abstract The effects of aviation on the Earth s atmosphere are mainly focused on greenhouse gases emissions, since CO2 and CH4 emissions are an important part of climate change contribution. The purpose of this paper is to discuss and evaluate this contribution using a coupled model of global CO2 and CH4 cycles, taking into account the maximum number of reservoirs and fluxes of these gases. According to this approach, a method based on a simple climate model and a simulation model of global CO2 and CH4 cycles is proposed, as a tool to determine the aviation s role in climate change. This coupled model consists of eight separate blocks that perform specific functions to evaluate the impacts of aviation emissions on climate change in a series of scenarios. The proposed method can calculate the global temperature change in various scenarios by processing the available data in the current literature. Based on these data it has been shown that global temperature and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere can increase by 1–3\xa0°C and up to 570–750\xa0ppm, respectively, depending on the anthropogenic scenario. The global temperature forecast is obtained with an average error of 3.4%.The results of this study show that the aviation s contribution to these changes during 2015–2100 is1.5\xa0±\xa00.1%.