Prediction intervals based soft sensor development using fuzzy information granulation and an improved recurrent ELM

Abstract

Abstract With the increasing complexity of large-scale industrial production processes, the number of variable factors is increasing. As a result, it is demanding to predict process key variables accurately. Currently, most of soft sensor models using support vector regression and artificial neural networks are based on point prediction. The soft measurement models using the technique of point prediction can only track or fit set values. It is difficult to deal with the problem of system uncertainty and to make reliability analysis using the point prediction based soft sensors. To address this problem, this paper proposes a development method of soft sensor using the technique of prediction intervals. Under this condition, the prediction intervals instead of the point prediction of the stable operation of the industrial process system are used. The interval boundaries of the trend change can be utilized to quantify and estimate the associated uncertainty. The proposed prediction intervals based soft sensor is based on fuzzy information granularity and improved recurrent extreme learning machine. First, the fuzzy information granularity is adopted to get the lower bound, trend and upper bound of the interval. Secondly, an improved recurrent extreme learning machine is built to further enhance the ability of prediction intervals. In the improved extreme learning machine model, a feedback layer is adopted to store the hidden layer output, calculate the data trend change and dynamically update the outputs of the feedback layer. Third, the comprehensive interval evaluation function is used to evaluate the rationality of the interval results. Through case studies using a University of California Irvine dataset and the purified Terephthalic acid solvent system, the provided prediction intervals method can directly generate the upper and lower bounds for process key variables with high accuracy.