Modeling population dynamics based on experimental trials with genetically modified mosquitoes

Abstract

Recently, the RIDL-SIT technology has been field-tested for control of \\emph{Aedes aegypti}. The technique consists of releasing genetically modified mosquitoes carrying a lethal gene . In 2016 the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) recommend to their constituent countries to test the new technologies proposed to control \\emph{Aedes aegypti} populations. However, issues concerning effectiveness and ecological impact have not been thoroughly studied so far. In order to study these issues, we develop an ecological model compatible with the information available. It presents an interdependent dynamics of mosquito populations and food in an homogeneous setting. Mosquito populations are described in an stochastic compartmental setup in terms of reaction norms depending on the available food in the environment. The development of the model allow us to indicate some critical biological knowledge that is missing and could (should) be produced. Considering the model results we show how the releases proposed could contribute to the increase of epidemic risk after they have concluded. Hybridisation levels and release numbers of mosquitoes as a function of intervention duration and target are calculated.