An example of a hazard and risk assessment for debris flows—A case study of Niwan Gully, Wudu, China

Abstract

Abstract The highly geologically active, structurally complex Bailongjiang river basin, Longnan City, Gansu Province hosts many debris-flow gullies. The recent Wenchuan and Jiuzhaigou earthquakes have increased the amount of source material available in these debris flow gullies, and the disturbed nature of the slopes makes them prone to failure under high rainfall, increasing the risk of large-scale debris flows. Moreover, poor urban planning in the region may multiply the human and economic losses caused by debris flows. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the potential hazard zones associated with such debris flows and to implement debris flow hazard and risk assessment. In this paper, Niwan gully is chosen as the study object, as it is characterized by repeated debris flow outbreaks and an ill-considered urban planning at the outlet of the gully. A depth-integrated continuum method is adopted to determine the potential hazard zones of debris flows with different recurrence intervals. The debris flow inundation and evolutionary trajectory are shown to be reasonably comparable with historical debris flows. A two-factor model that couples maximum flow depth with momentum is used to better classify the hazard zones. This study also provides a complete and efficient means to determine the values of debris flow parameters and to implement a hazard and risk assessment based on the solid material reserve method and a probabilistic method. This proposed approach efficiently generated a debris flow risk distribution map that can be used for effective disaster prevention in the Bailongjiang River basin.