Present and future projections of heatwave hazard-risk over India: A regional earth system model assessment.

Abstract

The heatwave is a disastrous hazard having significant impacts on health and society. This study analyses the heatwave hazards and risk for India s current and future scenarios using socioeconomic vulnerability and temperature datasets during the summer (April-June) season. The Census of India (CoI) 2011 datasets were considered to assess current vulnerability and projected from the SocioEconomic Data And Application Center (SEDAC) population at Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 4 for future vulnerability. Whereas IMD temperature data used for hazard assessment for the present scenario (1958-2005) while projected temperature data from regional earth system model REMO-OASIS-MPIOM (ROM) were used for the future (2006-2099) scenario. The study exhibited the most hazardous, vulnerable, and risk-prone regions identified as the south-eastern coast and Indo-Gangetic plains and some populous districts with metropolitan regions (Mumbai, Delhi, and Kolkata) under the current scenario. The coupled model ROM has efficiently captured the critical districts with higher and lower risk, showing its future projection capability. The study highlighted that the heatwave hazard-risk would significantly worsen in future scenarios in all districts under enhanced global warming and largely affecting the districts in the eastern and middle Indo-Gangetic plains and Malabar region. The present study will provide sufficient insights into designing mitigation strategies and future adaptive planning for the heatwave risk, which is one of the targets under Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Goal 13: Climate Action).