Study on the optimization of staple crops spatial distribution in China under the influence of natural disasters

Abstract

Abstract The spatial distribution of staple crops is related to the distribution of the agricultural industrial structure and national food security. Based on the interval-parameter stochastic programming method, the randomness and uncertainty of parameters are represented by intervals and the initial optimization model is established. In addition to conventional factors, such as land resources and food demand, the initial model also takes national and local agricultural supply policies as constraints. Furthermore, based on the two-stage interval-parameter stochastic programming method, natural disasters are regarded as a penalty in the second stage, and a two-stage model is established. The initial decision is modified so that the two-stage model can find a compromise optimization result under the constraints of feasibility and disaster impact. The initial model and the two-stage model are applied to optimize the staple crop spatial distribution in China’s provincial administrative districts. The initial optimization results show that rice is mainly planted in the southern region of China; wheat is planted in the central and eastern regions; maize is planted in the north-central and northeastern regions; and soybean is planted in the northeastern, middle-eastern and southwestern regions. Compared with the initial optimization results, the two-stage model optimization results showed that the area of wheat, rice and maize decreased while the area of soybean increased. Natural disasters led to crop yield reductions. In the initial model, the final yield of soybean could not meet the constraints. Therefore, the distribution area of soybean should be increased so that the soybean yield can still meet the constraints and ensure food security when the yield is reduced. The results of this study can provide a reference for adjusting the spatial distribution of staple crops at the provincial level in China from the perspective of food self-sufficiency.