Drought vulnerability and risk assessment in India: Sensitivity analysis and comparison of aggregation techniques.

Abstract

Long term drought management requires proper assessment and characterization of drought hazard, vulnerability and risk. This is particularly important for an agriculture-dependent, highly-populated, developing country such as India. However, the regulation of drought vulnerability and drought risk assessment in the country is mostly region-specific and ad-hoc, considering only a limited number of vulnerability indicators. In this study, a comprehensive, fine-resolution, country-wide drought risk assessment is carried out considering drought hazard in a multivariate framework, and using reliable drought vulnerability indicators that account for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Further, multiple aggregation techniques including subjective, objective and comprehensive methods are employed for vulnerability assessment, and their performance assessed and compared. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)+Entropy and TOPSIS methods, which are comprehensive aggregation techniques are found to be better performing, TOPSIS being the most robust method. A bivariate choropleth map based on the TOPSIS-derived drought vulnerability shows regions of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu subjected to drought hazard-driven risk, while risk in other regions such as Rajasthan, parts of Central India, Orissa and parts of Maharashtra are driven more by drought vulnerability. Parts of Western Rajasthan, Vidharbha, North-East India, Chattisgarh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka are under severe drought risk resulting from an interplay of hazard and vulnerability. Irrigation index, water body fraction, and groundwater availability are found to be the most significant indicators for assessing drought vulnerability in India. The above findings can aid decision makers and government bodies to plan region-specific line of action for building drought resilience.