Interannual variability of vegetation sensitivity to climate in China.

Abstract

Many studies have assessed the relative sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and even optimized climate states from long-term averages to infer short-term changes, but how ecosystem sensitivity and its relationships with climate variability vary over time remains elusive. By combining the vegetation sensitivity index (VSI) and a 15 year moving window, we analyzed interannual variability in spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation sensitivity to short-term climate variability and its correlations with climatic factors in China over the past three decades (1982-2015). We demonstrated that vegetation sensitivity shows high spatial heterogeneity, and varies with vegetation type and climate region. Generally, vegetation in the southwest and mountainous regions was more sensitive, especially coniferous forests and isolated shrubland patches. Comparatively, vegetation in dry regions was less sensitive to climate variability than in wetter climates. Due to frequent climate variability in the early 1990s, a large increase in the VSI was detected in 1996. Significant increases in the interannual variability of vegetation sensitivity were observed in greater than 23.7% of vegetated areas and decreases in only 4.2%. Solar radiation was the dominant climate driver of vegetation sensitivity, followed by temperature and precipitation. However, climate controls are not invariable across a range of climatic conditions, such as precipitation exerted an increasing influence on changes of vegetation sensitivity. Quantitative analyses of ecosystem sensitivity to climate variability such as ours are vital to identify which regions and vegetation are most vulnerable to future climate variability.