Validity of the source term for the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident estimated using local-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric dispersion of 137Cs.

Abstract

The source term of 137Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident was estimated from the results of local-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations and measurements. To confirm the source term s validity for reproducing the large-scale atmospheric dispersion of 137Cs, this study conducted hemispheric-scale atmospheric and oceanic dispersion simulations. In the dispersion simulations, the atmospheric-dispersion database system Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI)-DB and oceanic dispersion model SEA-GEARN-FDM that were developed by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency were used. Compared with the air concentrations of 137Cs measured by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, overall, the WSPEEDI-DB simulations well reproduced the measurements, whereas the simulation results partly overestimated some measurements. Furthermore, the validity of the deposition of 137Cs by WSPEEDI-DB was investigated using SEA-GEARN-FDM and concentrations of 137Cs in seawater sampled from the North Pacific. Seawater concentrations of 137Cs by the oceanic dispersion simulation, in which the deposition flux of 137Cs by WSPEEDI-DB was used as input from the atmosphere to oceans, were statistically consistent to the measurement. However, the simulated seawater concentrations of 137Cs were underestimated regionally in the North Pacific. Both the overestimation of air concentrations and underestimation of seawater concentrations could be attributed to the less amounts of 137Cs deposition by less precipitation over the North Pacific. The overestimation and underestimation could be improved without contradiction between the air and seawater concentrations of 137Cs using more realistic precipitation in atmospheric dispersion simulations. This shows that the source term validated in this study could reproduce the spatiotemporal distribution of 137Cs from the FDNPS accident in both local and large-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations.