Continental transmission of emerging COVID-19 on the 38° north latitude

Abstract

\n Background\n As COVID-19 has become a pandemic emerging infectious disease it is important to examine whether there was a spatiotemporal clustering phenomenon in the globe during the rapid spread after the first outbreak reported from southern China.\n \n Materials and Methods\n The open data on the number of COVID-19 cases reported at daily basis form the globe were used to assess the evolution of outbreaks with international air link on the same latitude and also including Taiwan. The dynamic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model was used to evaluate continental transmission from December 2019 to March 2020 before the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic with basic reproductive number and effective reproductive number before and after containment measurements.\n \n Results\n For the initial COVID-19 outbreak in China, the estimated reproductive number was reduced from 2.84 during the overwhelming outbreaks in early January to 0.43 after the strict lockdown policy. It is very surprising to find there were three countries (including South Korea, Iran, and Italy) and the Washington state of the USA on the 38o North Latitude involved with large-scale community-acquired outbreaks since the first imported COVID-19 cases from China. The propagation of continental transmission was augmented from hotspot to hotspot with higher reproductive number immediately before the declaration of pandemic. By contrast, there was not any large community-acquired outbreak in Taiwan.\n \n Conclusions\n The propagated spatiotemporal transmission from China to other hotspots may explain the emerging pandemic that can only be exempted by timely border control and preparedness of containment measurements according to Taiwan experience.\n