Lessons Learned from a Two-Round Delphi-based Scenario Study

Abstract

The Delphi technique is a suitable methodology for structuring group communication to answer current and prospective research questions within several rounds. The method is used in many disciplines and characterized by anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical “group response” (Rowe & Wright, 2001). This technical paper presents practical details and lessons learned from a two-round Delphi-based scenario study in which projections (Delphi statements, questions or hypotheses) were developed with findings from expert interviews and an expert workshop. This Delphi study provides answers to future-related questions for which other research methods are inappropriate. This is depicted as a five-step process, making it easy to follow and replicable, for example to help first-time Delphi-method researchers. In doing so, the authors aim to provide the community with valuable technical insights and guidance for studies applying the Delphi technique both to prospective questions and in other research settings.• Conducting a Delphi study can be a slow process with respect to receiving feedback from the panelists. Planning an appropriate period for distributing the questionnaire may produce a higher return rate. A sufficient time buffer should be incorporated into project planning.• Projections that create dissent among the panelists may provide valuable results.• Data analytics, software programs and online social networks can support researchers, save time and resources, and provide further insights in the process of conducting a Delphi study.