Urban growth prediction with parcel based 3D urban growth model (PURGOM)

Abstract

While cities grow horizontally over natural areas, they also grow vertically with high-rise construction in time. The Floor Area Ratio (FAR) is defined as the ratio of the amount of construction area on a parcel to the parcel area. FAR is one of the essential indicators for detecting and measuring 3D (three-dimensional) change. The amount and trends of change differ for each urban settlement and on its internal dynamics. This study consists of two stages: determining and modeling the variables and their weights that affect the FAR values and generating future estimates. First, the criteria affecting the growth trends between the years of 2012 and 2019 in the study area of Saray were examined as five groups at the parcel level with statistical and spatial analysis. It has been determined that the criteria; accessibility, accessibility in line with planning decisions, zoning and land-use decisions, land values, and the built environment affect the FAR value distribution. As a result of the analysis, the selected criteria were evaluated with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the weighted linear combination method. The probable spatial distribution of FAR coefficients of each parcel was found. The FAR coefficients obtained were calibrated by real FAR values for 2019. Future predictions for the years 2030 and 2040 were revealed according to the demand scenario. As a result, it was determined that there is a construction pressure on the urban center and near the transportation routes. The primary purpose of this study is to determine current trends by creating a 3D urban growth model based on parcel-level FAR values, making predictions, and producing decision support tools for city managers.• Determination of criteria and weights according to spatial dynamics of the study area.• Determination of the amount and type of urban growth demand specific to the study area and its compatibility with different scenarios.• Prediction of parcel-based 3D urban growth