Biological traits can mediate species-specific, quasi-extinction risks of macroinvertebrates in streams experiencing frequent extreme floods.

Abstract

Most research on the ecological responses to extreme floods examines impacts at short time scales, whereas long-term datasets combining hydrological and biological information remain rare. Using such data, we applied time-series analysis to investigate simultaneous effects of a biotic factor (density dependence), an abiotic factor (extreme floods), and spatial synchrony in the population dynamics of three riverine insects. Spatial synchronization of population dynamics by extreme floods varied among species. These different responses to extreme floods could be explained by species-specific biological traits. Moreover, density dependence influenced the population dynamics under the context of extreme floods. Accordingly, quasi-extinction risks were highest for species that were simultaneously influenced by biotic and abiotic factors. An understanding of ecological responses to increasing hydrological extremes may be enhanced by recognizing long-term, climatic non-stationarity.