Modelling airport catchment areas to anticipate the spread of infectious diseases across land and air travel.

Abstract

Air travel is an increasingly important conduit for the worldwide spread of infectious diseases. However, methods to identify which airports an individual may use to initiate travel, or where an individual may travel to upon arrival at an airport is not well studied. This knowledge gap can be addressed by estimating airport catchment areas: the geographic extent from which the airport derives most of its patronage. While airport catchment areas can provide a simple decision-support tool to help delineate the spatial extent of infectious disease spread at a local scale, observed data for airport catchment areas are rarely made publicly available. Therefore, we evaluated a probabilistic choice behavior model, the Huff model, as a potential methodology to estimate airport catchment areas in the United States in data-limited scenarios. We explored the impact of varying input parameters to the Huff model on estimated airport catchment areas: distance decay exponent, distance cut-off, and measures of airport attractiveness. We compared Huff model catchment area patterns for Miami International Airport (MIA) and Harrisburg International Airport (MDT). We specifically compared our model output to observed data sampled for MDT to align model parameters with an established, observed catchment area. Airport catchment areas derived using the Huff model were highly sensitive to changes in model parameters. We observed that a distance decay exponent of 2 and a distance cut-off of 500\xa0km represented the most realistic spatial extent and heterogeneity of the MIA catchment area. When these parameters were applied to MDT, the Huff model produced similar spatial patterns to the observed MDT catchment area. Finally, our evaluation of airport attractiveness showed that travel volume to the specific international destinations of interest for infectious disease importation risks (i.e., Brazil) had little impact on the predicted choice of airport when compared to all international travel. Our work is a proof of concept for use of the Huff model to estimate airport catchment areas as a generalizable decision-support tool in data-limited scenarios. While our work represents an initial examination of the Huff model as a method to approximate airport catchment areas, an essential next step is to conduct a quantitative calibration and validation of the model based on multiple airports, possibly leveraging local human mobility data such as call detail records or online social network data collected from mobile devices. Ultimately, we demonstrate how the Huff model could be potentially helpful to improve the precision of early warning systems that anticipate infectious disease spread, or to incorporate when local public health decision makers need to identify where to mobilize screening infrastructure or containment strategies at a local level.