Thyroid lobectomy as a cost-effective approach in low-risk papillary thyroid cancer versus active surveillance.

Abstract

BACKGROUND\nAn ongoing debate exists over the optimal management of low-risk papillary thyroid cancer. The American Thyroid Association supports the concept of active surveillance to manage low-risk papillary thyroid cancer; however, the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance has not yet been established. We sought to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing active surveillance versus surgical intervention for patients in the United States.\n\n\nMETHODS\nA Markov decision tree model was developed to compare active surveillance and thyroid lobectomy. Our reference case is a 40-year-old female who was diagnosed with unifocal (<15 mm), low-risk papillary thyroid cancer. Probabilistic outcomes, costs, and health utilities were determined using an extensive literature review. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $50,000/quality-adjusted life year gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for uncertainty in the model s variables.\n\n\nRESULTS\nLobectomy provided a final effectiveness of 21.7/quality-adjusted life years, compared with 17.3/quality-adjusted life years for active surveillance. Furthermore, incremental cost effectiveness ratio for lobectomy versus active surveillance was $19,560/quality-adjusted life year (<willing-to-pay threshold of $50,000/quality-adjusted life year), and thus surgical intervention proved to be cost-effective in patients between 40 and 69 years old. Further analysis revealed that, at the age of 69 years, active surveillance is more cost-effective than lobectomy, with a final effectiveness of 17.3/quality-adjusted life years. Compared to active surveillance, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio for lobectomy at the age of 69 was $27,235/quality-adjusted life year, which decreases quality-adjusted life years by 1.5.\n\n\nCONCLUSION\nLobectomy is a cost-effective strategy in middle-aged patients with low-risk papillary thyroid cancer. In contrast, active surveillance is cost-effective beginning at the age of 69. Identification of such nuances can help physicians and patients determine the best, most individualized long-term management strategy for low-risk papillary thyroid cancer.