Grain export restrictions during COVID-19 risk food insecurity in many low- and middle-income countries

Abstract

Global food security is threatened by the effects of COVID-19 on international agricultural supply chains and locusts destroying crops and livelihoods in the Horn of Africa and South Asia. We quantify the possible impacts on global supplies and prices of wheat, rice and maize. We show that local production declines have moderate impacts on global prices and supply—but trade restrictions and precautionary purchases by a few key actors could create global food price spikes and severe local food shortages. COVID-19 and locust swarms have threatened international agricultural supply chains. Here, the possible impacts on wheat, rice and maize trade are modelled, showing that trade restrictions could create food price spikes and localized food shortages.