The demographic impact of terrorism: evidence from municipalities in the Basque Country and Navarre

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper studies the persistence of the effects of terrorist attacks on the urban structure at the regional level. With this aim, a dynamic differences-in-differences approach is applied to all the municipalities of the Basque Country and Navarre autonomous communities in Spain during the period 1986–2014. The results show that terrorism had a negative and transitory effect on population growth. We also find that incidents with deaths implied more adverse shocks. Terrorist attacks had more significant effects in bigger municipalities and in the provinces with a stronger ideological polarization. Finally, we provide evidence of demographic spatial effects derived from violence.