The economic development of Europe’s regions: A quantitative history since 1900

Abstract

The Economic Development of Europe’s Regions. A Quantitative History Since 1900 represents a pioneering contribution and guidebook to our understanding of long-run economic development in European regions. It is the result of a long-term research project coordinated by leading economic historians. It includes 15 nation-specific chapters written by national experts of historical statistical reconstructions of regional economic aggregates. The cross-sectional unit of analysis is represented by European NUTS-2 regions (173 regions, excluding, however, those of Eastern Europe). The temporal dimension includes 11 benchmark estimates covering the period 1900–2010. The choice of the benchmark years is mostly dictated by the availability of population and industrial census data, representing an important component of the historical sources underlying the gross domestic product (GDP) and population estimates. Indeed, for certain countries, the temporal span covered by the data is much longer (such as, for instance, the case of the Netherlands, with detailed data referring to the period 1820–2010 in a chapter written by Herman de Jong and the, sadly late, Dirk Stelder). The variables included in the new data set include regional GDP at 1990 international dollars, regional area in km (at current borders), total population, and the share of agriculture, industry and services in total employment. The book is enriched by a fascinating introductory chapter by Rosés and Wolf presenting an original description of secular regional patterns in terms of structural change, that is, the changing internal composition of GDP, and the growth and variation of per capita GDP (including, but not limited to, betaand sigma-convergence analysis). The chapter shows that regional convergence ended around 1980 and the gap has been growing since then, with capital regions and declining industrial regions at the two extremes. This rise in regional inequality has played a significant role in the recent populist backlash. For the sake of completeness, we note that a concluding chapter considers economic development during the period 1880–2010 in the regions of the United States, providing a valid opportunity to consider long-term regional developments in an appropriate comparative perspective. The Economic Development of Europe’s Regions will represent a fundamental reference for economic historians, regional economists and policy-makers interested in socioeconomic analysis at the European level. Even scholars mainly interested in regional studies at the national level will benefit considerably from such a rich set of new data, by relaxing, for instance, the unrealistic assumption, so often made, that there are no neighbouring regions outside national borders. The Rosés and Wolf data set is entirely new empirical evidence. It can be downloaded from the website of the European Historical Economics Society (www.ehes.org). However, the proposed historical estimates are subject to improvements and later revisions. The Geary and Stark methodology adopted to approximate regional GDP estimates (the cases of Austria and the Netherlands represent exceptions in that a more direct approach was used) suggests a framework for an indirect estimate based on variation in employment and wages which allows for an approximation of GDP by region at the country factor cost. As a result, the methodology requires as inputs reliable estimates of national GDP, value added per worker by sector, and nominal wages and employment by sector and region. The hope is that the Rosés and Wolf data set will stimulate an interdisciplinary set of empirical analysis by economic historians, spatial econometricians, geographers and regional economists that will provide useful guidance to further refine and enrich the present version of the data set. This is not a criticism; rather, it is what research is all about.