How to Distance Russia from China

Abstract

Military alignment between Russia and China is increasing. Although some still downplay its significance, alarm is warranted. Many perceive the dangerous trend but conclude that the United States can do little to detach Moscow from Beijing. Still, there are serious calls for the United States to find ways to improve relations with Moscow and draw it away from China. These are, in essence, calls for the United States to use a wedge strategy—a policy to move or keep a potential adversary out of an opposing alliance. Yet, when it comes to how to do that, debate is constricted by the usual grooves of foreign policy orthodoxy and flawed answers to two basic questions: first, what is the mainspring of Russia-China convergence? Misdiagnosis here makes it harder to discern potential remedies and easier to prescribe ones that make matters worse. Second, what is the essential danger that their convergence poses? Confusion here makes it harder to gauge whether this can and should be changed at an acceptable cost. I argue that the mainspring of Russia-China convergence is their growing encirclement by the United States’ amalgamating system of formal military alliances, such as NATO, and less formal strategic partnerships, such as with India, Georgia, and Ukraine. This increasing organization of military relations against Russia and China pushes them together in a way that would not otherwise occur. The main problem this convergence poses for US grand strategy is not that Russia and China will better combine military forces, but that increased expectations of support from Moscow will encourage greater Chinese risktaking in Asia. The political focus of a wedge strategy to divide Russia from