Visiting probability model: a new method for tourist volume forecasting

Abstract

ABSTRACT Tourist volume forecasting is an ongoing theme in tourism research. Current methods rely too much on the previous tourist arrivals data. Based on tourism system perspective, we propose a visiting probability model composed of five independent variables: the attractiveness of a destination, the travel time from a origin to the destination, the traffic expense to and from the destination, the physical fatigue travel time and the per capita disposable monthly income of the origin. The model provides a new method for forecasting the number of tourists from a specific origin without historical tourist arrivals data.