Gbagbo’s lost bet: when inviting external judicial scrutiny backfires

Abstract

ABSTRACT After spending seven years in pre-trial detention and still unable to return home pending the appeal of his acquittal, former Ivorian President and strongman Laurent Gbagbo has certainly come to regret accepting the International Criminal Court (ICC) s jurisdiction back in April 2003. Drawing on in-person interviews carried out during a research trip to Abidjan, this paper conducts a thorough analysis of the situation in Côte d Ivoire over sixteen years (2003–2019), exploring the motives of Gbagbo’s decision and tracing the evolution of ICC-state relations. Preliminary findings suggest: first, then-President Gbagbo likely opened the door to ICC scrutiny due to the prospect of stigmatizing his enemies as war criminals. Second, the looming threat of ICC indictment likely strengthened Gbagbo’s resolution to hold on to power despite his defeat in the 2010 presidential elections. Third, externally-sponsored regime change ushered in a cooperative phase of ICC-state relations. Finally, since Gbagbo’s transfer to the ICC in November 2011, the Ouattara Administration has had a vested interest in strengthening judicial capacity, thus preventing key figures of the current government from following Gbagbo’s fate.