Rejecting constitutional reform in the 2016 Italian referendum: analysing the effects of perceived discontent, incumbent performance and referendum-specific factors

Abstract

ABSTRACT The rejection of constitutional reform in the 4 December 2016 referendum resulted in the resignation of Matteo Renzi. Numerous potential explanations could be offered for this result, reflecting political discontent, dissatisfaction with the governing coalition or disagreement with the specific referendum proposals. An analysis of the referendum results can thus serve to identify which of these aspects led to the ultimate rejection of the proposed constitutional changes and the incumbent prime minister. Secondary analysis of Italian Election Study (Itanes) data investigates the impact that interest in the referendum had on these factors. Results indicate that assessments of incumbent performance and referendum-specific factors had a stronger effect than political dissatisfaction. The evidence also suggests that assessments of incumbent performance and referendum-specific factors had even stronger effects among those particularly interested in the referendum.