Life loss per death of respiratory disease attributable to non-optimal temperature: results from a national study in 364 Chinese locations

Abstract

Many studies have linked temperature with respiratory deaths, but epidemiological evidence of temperature-attributable years of life lost (YLL) from respiratory diseases is limited. Daily respiratory YLL rates were calculated using mortality data from 364 locations of China during 2006–2017, and meteorological data were collected for the same period. First, the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to estimate specific temperature-respiratory YLL rate associations in each location. Then multivariable meta-analysis was conducted to pool the location-specific estimates. Finally, we calculated the average life loss per death (LLD) to quantify the respiratory mortality burden of non-optimal temperature. Subgroup analyses were conducted by gender, age, region and cause of death. Inversely J-shaped association was observed between non-optimal temperature and respiratory YLL rate in China. The minimum YLL-rate temperature was 26.9 °C nationwide. An average of 1.37 years (95% CI: 1.06–1.65) LLD was attributable to non-optimal temperatures with 2.06 years (95% CI: 1.57–2.60) for pneumonia, 2.03 years (95% CI: 1.76–2.31) for chronic lower respiratory infections (LRTI), 0.88 years (95% CI: 0.65–1.09) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), most of which was attributed to moderate cold (0.73 years, 95% CI: 0.65–0.80). LLD caused by non-optimal temperature was higher in males, the young, and north China. Exposure to non-optimal temperature increases respiratory YLL rate in China, most of which were attributed to moderate cold. People with respiratory diseases including pneumonia, chronic LRTI and COPD are vulnerable to non-optimal temperature exposure. The result of this study provides useful information to reduce temperature-related respiratory disease burden.