Tsunami risk of earthquakes at the coast of Japan for the Far East of Russia

Abstract

Possibility of a tsunami as a result of an earthquake is estimated by magnitude and geographical criterion now. The earthquake is considered tsunami-danger if his epicentre gets to a tsunamigenic zone, and intensity exceeds the set threshold value of magnitude. The solution of such task as specification of magnitude and geographical criterion for the announcement of alarm of a tsunami in the Sea of Japan and in the water area of the Pacific Ocean to the east of the Japanese islands is extremely relevant. For the purpose of specification of magnitude and geographical criterion of tsunami risk of earthquakes in these areas the author executed a series of computing experiments. During the computing experiments the centres of real historical tsunami in these water areas were modelled. At creation of the model centres of a tsunami the Okada model was used. Based on the analysis of statistics of historical tsunami and results of numerical modelling by the author the redundancy now in use by Service of warning of a tsunami in the Far East of Russia magnitude a tsunami risk threshold is shown.