Analysis and Projections of Rainfall using representative concentration pathways (RCPs) Scenarios in Sleman Yogyakarta

Abstract

Climate change has affected many agricultural areas, and further problem in food security. One of indicator in climate change is the pattern of rainfall, then it is necessary to predict that. This research was conducted in Sleman due to this area has a lot of agricultural activities which greatly influence human life in Yogyakarta. Monthly rainfall data were obtained from Balai Besar Wilayah Sungai Serayu Opak (BBWSSO) from 1988 to 2019. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale 21st century rainfall for 30 years in Sleman, Yogyakarta. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical data observed rainfall records from 7 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. General Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate change with scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. Rainfall prediction with RCP scenarios is needed to be used as a guide for adaptation of crops in agriculture because it relates to water availability.