The impact of covid-19 pandemic on food sufficiency in Bantul Yogyakarta – Indonesia

Abstract

Bantul is one of regencies in Special Region of Yogyakarta Indonesia which prone to geological disaster such as earthquakes and tsunami. Bantul likewise risky regency to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic due to the immense tourism and student urbanization. This study was aimed to explore the supply and demand behavior of rice (staple food) during the COVID-19 pandemic period in Bantul regency. Dynamic modeling software (Powersim 10) was applied in this study. The modeling used series data 2010 to 2019 produced by Statistic Agency of Bantul which include rice production, population, urbanization, and rice field area data. The COVID-19 pandemic was assumed taken place throughout 2020. The validation model adopted MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). This study proved the rising of the rice demand in 2020 was 145,131.25 ton while the production was 115,988.47 ton, so the COVID-19 pandemic caused Bantul regency was deficiency of rice 29.142,78 ton. The surplus of rice reoccurs in 2021 to 2026 and Bantul was deficiency of rice 573.51 ton in 2027.