Land conversion and availability of agricultural land in 2035 in Puncak Area Bogor Regency

Abstract

Land conversion is the result of a complex interaction between physical, social, and economic activities in land use as human activities in natural resource management. Currently, the land conversion phenomenon is a common sight that we often encounter at any time. As happened in the Puncak area of Bogor Regency, land conversion, the increasing demand for land, has led to increasing land conversion. This study aims to (1) identify land conversion in Bogor Regency in 2005-2015, (2) predict agricultural land conversion in 2035 based on land use trends in Puncak District, Bogor Regency. The analytical methods used are remote sensing techniques, spatial analysis, and making land-use scenarios with GIS and ANN analysis. The results showed that land conversion in Puncak Subdistrict, Bogor Regency during 2005-2019 caused the area of agricultural land to decrease by an average of 82.59 hectares every year due to conversion to developed land and open land. From the prediction of changes in agricultural land area in 2035, it shows a decrease in rice fields and fields on average 60.90 hectares every year. However, the plantation area has increased by an average of 24.35 hectares every year due to the conversion from forest and shrubs.