Delimiting Ecological Space and Simulating its Dominant functions in the Perspective of Dynamic Changes in Ecosystem Service Functions: A Case Study in the Qionglai City of Sichuan Province, China

Abstract

Demarcating the ecological space scientifically and predicting the spatial change trend of the dominant ecosystem service functions reasonably are of great significance for demarcating the ecological red line, optimizing the pattern of ecological space and promoting the high-quality development of economic and social. This study took Qionglai City as the research area and utilized land-use, satellite remote sensing and other data to demarcate the ecological space from the perspective of the dynamic changes of ecosystem service functions with the support of ESRI ArcGIS and IDRISI. And then we applied the Markov-CA model to simulate the spatial pattern of the dominant ecosystem service functions for the ecological space in 2025 with integrating the change characteristics of the dominant ecosystem service functions. The results showed that: (1) The dynamic change characteristics of ecosystem service functions were obvious. The critical value of comprehensive function value and average annual change rate of ecosystem service functions were 6 and 5% respectively. (2) The ecological space area was 98307hm2, which was intensively distributed in the western and central south of the city. Its distribution was consistent with the ecological space range in the local ecological civilization construction plan, which indicated that the ecological space delineation method based on the dynamics of ecosystem service functions is reliable. (3) The dominant ecosystem service functions had shifted and showed strong non-stationarity during 2003-2019, so the dynamicity of the dominant ecosystem service functions should be fully considered in the ecological space zoning management and other related planning. (4) The Markov-CA model was of high simulation accuracy (Kappa coefficient > 0.95), and the simulation results were consistent with the regional ecological function zoning basically. Therefore, the model can be applied to simulate the spatial layout of dominant ecosystem service functions for ecological space in the future. (5) The dominant ecosystem service functions in Qionglai will still undergo mutual conversions during 2019-2025. The ecological space will still maintain the three dominant functions including primary product production, climate regulation and hydrological regulation in 2025, but the area of them will change into 32793hm2, 52490hm2 and 13024hm2 respectively.