Analysis of Tsunami Disaster Risk for a Petroleum Refinery Plant at Tsunami Prone Area

Abstract

A Petroleum Refinery Plant is located in the tsunami prone area at the southern coast of Central Java, Indonesia. The potential mega thrust earthquake, along subduction zone of southern coast of Java, has been identified to have moment magnitude as maximum as Mw = 8.7. The worst scenario due to this earthquake will potentially generate 5.3m to 8.6m tsunami height along the coast within 30 minutes and will inundate one to two kilometres inland of the refinery complex. In this regard, a comprehensive investigation on potential tsunami hazard, level of vulnerability, and tsunami risk potential were carried out. The investigation includes collection and analysis data of detailed topography, bathymetry, land covering and land use, availability of protective structure as well as disaster contingency plan, field ground check data verification, awareness questionnaire, etc. The investigation output includes numerical tsunami inundation simulation, tsunami hazard index, vulnerability index, capacity index, and tsunami risk index for all area of refinery unit. It is concluded that: 1) the main location of refinery complex with considerable numbers of tanks is vulnerable to high tsunami hazard index, and 2) the capacity index in all area are mostly between low to mid-level.